Executive Summary
Renewable energy investments by their very nature are subject to political risk. This is especially true of the European REC markets, which since the last long-term update in March have been plagued by high levels of policy uncertainty. Italy has revised its REC scheme to that of a feed-in tariff by the end of 2015. The UK has announced that it also intends to change to a feed-in tariff, although green certificates will continue to trade until 2027. Romania and Poland are all considering amendments to their schemes and Sweden is preparing to link its scheme with Norway next year.
This Bloomberg New Energy Finance report provides an overview of the recent market developments and a long-term, fundamentals perspective on these programmes with projections for REC demand, supply and price.
In addition, Bloomberg New Energy Finance has released a new version of the European REC model which has been used for analysis in this report. This model features a number of improvements:
• Data is updated based on the latest knowledge from sector specialists
• Improved price search algorithm and re-coded to improve run time
• Enhancements for modelling biomass, banding of credits by technology and headroom provision for the UK.
The model can be licensed for client use. Please speak with a member of the sales team for further information (contact details are provided at the back of this report).