Waymo, GM Robotaxis Coming to a Street Near You by 2040

This article first appeared on the BNEF mobile app and the Bloomberg Terminal.

  • 10% of car sales in 2040 expected to be robotaxis
  • Robotaxi fleet in same year to exceed 20 million

Sales of completely autonomous cars will scale rapidly from the mid-2030s, according to BloombergNEF. Most of these so-called Level-4 autonomous vehicles will be deployed as robotaxis in shared services like Uber, Didi, Lyft and General Motors’ Cruise, among others.

Robotaxis are already being piloted for the public in a handful of cities by the likes of Alphabet Waymo in the U.S. and Baidu in China. These services will expand to new areas in the coming years as testing accelerates.

Numerous edge cases still have to be solved for robotaxis to be deployed in a broad range of different traffic situations and weather conditions, but favorable economics could enable fast growth once the underlying technology is well developed.

Electric Vehicle Outlook 2020 Read the executive summary report here

 

Robotaxis are best-suited to cities, where high population density plus parking restrictions, traffic jams and emission standards make shared and electric autonomous transport attractive to consumers and policymakers alike.
For more on these trends, see BNEF’s annual Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook.

BNEF Shorts are research excerpts available only on the BNEF mobile app and the Bloomberg Terminal, highlighting key findings from our reports. If you would like to learn more about our services, please contact us.

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BloombergNEF (BNEF) is a strategic research provider covering global commodity markets and the disruptive technologies driving the transition to a low-carbon economy. Our expert coverage assesses pathways for the power, transport, industry, buildings and agriculture sectors to adapt to the energy transition. We help commodity trading, corporate strategy, finance and policy professionals navigate change and generate opportunities.
 
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