- White House targets 3 billion gallons of SAF by 2030
- Switching renewable diesel capacity could meet goal sooner
The Biden Administration aims to increase sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) supply to 3 billion gallons by 2030, about 11% of expected U.S. jet fuel demand.
This would require a 650-fold leap from 2020 supply, although there could be sufficient capacity as soon as 2025.
Of the renewable fuel projects tracked by BNEF, most are focused upon renewable diesel, for on-road use. Yet these could produce SAF with relatively simple tweaks. BNEF estimates that if all projects maximized SAF, capacity could reach 3.7 billion gallons by 2025.
It is highly unlikely that all projects will both materialize and maximize SAF, but this scenario shows that the 2030 goal is theoretically within reach, if policy were adopted to encourage producers to make the switch.
Feedstock will also present a challenge. More than 90% of proposed SAF capacity is via hydrotreatment, which will put pressure on waste fats and vegetable oil supply. Policy should aim to diversify by supporting advanced technologies, like those developed by Fulcrum BioEnergy and Gevo.
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